A final model may require one or more of the following
structures:
The number of possible final models that Autobox
could find is infinite and only discoverable via a true expert system
like Autobox. A final model may require one or more of the following
The Final Model will satisfy both:
- Necessity tests that guarantee the estimated coefficient is
statistically significant.
- Sufficiency tests that guarantee that the error process is:
- unpredictable on itself.
- not predictable from the set of causals.
- has a constant mean of zero.
The Final model will contain one or more of the following structures:
1. CAUSAL with correct lead/lag specification.
2. MEMORY with correct "autoregressive memory".
3. DUMMY with correct pulses, level shifts or spline time trends
Typical Forecasts
1. Daily Demand For Cash at an ATM Machine view
graph
2. Monthly New Prescriptions for Diabetes view
graph
3. Monthly Outbreak of Dengue Disease view
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4. Weekly Sales of General Mills Frozen Biscuits view
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5. Detecting a Lead Effect view
graph
6. Daily Beer Sales for one Store-SKU view
graph
7. Changing Times view graph
8. More Changing Times view
graph
9. No Trend or Seasonality view
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10. No Memory ..Just a Level Shift view
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11. Czech GDP reflects democratization view
graph