Hatboro, Pa. (December 12, 2014) - Autobox featured in the Government of Financial Officer's(GFOA.org) article on the use of Forecasting. Read the article here.
It seems like it is time to advance the conversation from univariate forecasting approaches to using causal modeling as this will really enhance the forecasting process to reflect the true underlying direction. As we all know, the past doesn't cause the future. For example, correlating unemployment rates with tax revenue. If people think they will lose their job then they are less likely to spend thereby descrease tax revenue and of course the opposite if they feel good about keeping their job.
Of course, there are changes in legislation that disrupt the whole tax revenue stream that occur regularly that only sophisticated methods can adapt to and forecast well and Autobox's unique ability to do so is discussed in the article. These events can also be explicitly modeled since we know that they will occur as the legislation process is transparent using Intervention Detection variable using a "step function" type variable, for example.
Our client, Aaron Olson, provided the background to GFOA on how Autobox is used to forecast revenue for the State of Idaho for this article.
Media Contact About Automatic Forecasting Systems, Inc.
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