This aspect
of the software was incorporated for DOS 3.0 and plays no role
in AUTOBOX 6.0. Essentially it was a way to allow a user to
store up to a specified number of series in a database. The
larger the number the higher the price. A time series is a collection
of readings. A database is a collection of time series and a
catalog is a collection of databases.
No. AUTOBOX
does not place an upper limit on the number of databases.
The data, the
time period, the periodicity of the data(e.g. monthly), and the
type of data stochastic(random) or deterministic(dummy variable).
AFS does not encourage
customers to purchase inexpensive versions and move up. Our policy
is that we will provide a full credit toward any trade up or trade-in
for the first 30 days. For trade ins between 30 and 60 days we will
provide a 50% credit. After that you would have to pay the full
price. Thus if you bought the $800 version and decided within 30
to 60 days that you had made a mistake and wanted a $1,400 version,
you would have to pay an additional $1,000 ( $1400 less the 50%
trade in on the $800 version). It's best to fully understand your
needs. We will be glad to help you and suggest the program that
best meets your needs. Call us at 215-675-0652 and we will explain
this to you in full.
The data, the
time period, the periodicity of the data(e.g. monthly), and the
type of data stochastic(random) or deterministic(dummy variable).
The user can specify up to 29
independent variables. Autobox will identify intervention variables which are included
as part of the 29 maximum ( smaller versions are limited to 5 inputs ).
There can be a
maximum of 10,000 observations for any given analysis. It would
be most unlikely that a model's parameters would remain constant
over that time let alone the model. Autobox's "Test For Constancy
of Parameters" will identify if the parameters have changed and
at the user's option to ignore the data prior to the point in time
when the change occurred. Smaller versions are available with a
maximum length of 100 and 300 respectively.
Yes, it can detect level shifts,
pulses, seasonal pulses, changes in variances and local time trends. These tools provide
the user with an early warning system that highlights which series are experiencing
significant changes.
Yes, the system can store model forms.
These models can be used as either starting points for the next period's processing or
can be used for the forecasting phase thereby reducing job time.
Yes, the user
can specify dummy variables into the modeling process. Autobox can
identify lead and lag relationships due to the promotion. If the
user fails to include the promotion the system would most likely
identify the omission and account for it through intervention detection,
but this does not cure the forecast values!. Promotional variables
can also be entered as quantitative as compared to qualitative variables,
depending on the user's needs.
Intervention detection will correct
for any unusual data. AUTOBOX will replace missing observations omitted from the initial
importation by developing smoothed values via interpolation.
Yes, MAPE,MAD,BIAS etc.
Yes, but these
are particular forms of ARIMA which have model forms that are "assumed"
whereas Transfer Function and ARIMA modeling procedures make no
assumptions about the model form and generate the model parameters
solely on the pattern inherent in the data.
Yes, this portability can allow users
to integrate Autobox into production planning and decision support systems. We have a
DLL that can be called using C code that we have a available.
Yes, Flat files
and XLS formats are recognized.
Autobox run on
Windows platforms. Additionally it can run on any operating system
which has a fortran compiler. The program is Fortran based which
is portable.
Yes, the user can vary the future
values of the independent variables and re-model to see the effect of different scenarios.
Yes, graphing is sometimes the best
way to visualize relationships between the actuals and forecasted data.
Statistics are a numerical way of describing data and relationships between datasets.
Often a combination of the two descriptive methods (graphical and statistical) can help
an analyst build a superior model.
Yes, we have manuals
for all of our products to provide help for terms, usage and every
selection that you will have. We have also provided a tutorial to
provide more "hands-on" training.
Yes, call for details.
Yes, it's open from 8am-8pm (EST)
Monday though Friday, though you can probably catch us in on some weekends.
Dial 215-675-0652.
AUTOBOX provides
a comprehensive summary of forecasting performance and allows
for forecast errors to be tracked by origin and by lead time.
In a sentence one 12 period out forecast error is not the same
as twelve 1 period out forecast errors. Kind of obvious but
most people never think of tracking performance from different
origins.
