To find an exact reference in a Journal article, you should search on "Autobox" or "Freefore" in the articles or papers to go directly to the area where Autobox is cited/used.

2/16/10: Reviewed in OR/MS Today, February 2010

12/30/09: Preview our talk at the February IBF meeting in Phoenix on "Building Demand Forecasting Models for ATM Machines & the Time Value of Money Risk"

12/01/09: Launched Mixed-Frequency Suite (download demo) for forecasting Interval data(ie hourly, semi-hourly data)

12/01/09: Mixed-Frequency Suite launched for forecasting Interval data (ie hourly, semi-hourly data)

11/20/09: Join our discussion group on linkedin.com. Can you imagine this many smart people in one spot?

11/10/09: We have added two new reports to the Batch version that identifies where a pulse or level shift occurred. This report allows management to get macro view of what unusual behavior is occurring in the data. We call this "Hypothesis Generation". You didn't know about it until Autobox told you about it! a report like this can help a company try and create a theory as to why the data is the way it is. See the report in our capabilities presentation.

11/10/09: We have added for daily data an automatic variable to account for when a holiday that falls on a weekend

09/18/09: See our presentation we gave in Vegas at the IBF conference on "Data Cleansing and automatic Procedures"view

09/03/09: AFS gives its view on the Collaborative Forecasting Process view

07/01/09: We just submitted our forecasts for the 1st of 3 stages of the 2010 GRAND Neural Network Competition view

03/03/09: Profiled in ORMS Today's 2009 Statistical Survey with Autobox compared amongst 24 competitors. by James Swainview

02/01/09 Used by Government of Canada's Department of Defense (DOD) to minimize expenditures due to Foreign Exchange Risk view

02/01/09 Used in International Journal of Forecasting "On the importance of verifying forecasting results" by Yalta and Jenal view

01/08/09: Article "Forecasting Propulsion" APICS magazine Jan/Feb 2009 view

12/05/08: Used in Journal of Business Forecasting paper on "Forecasting and Planning with POS Data: A Case Study" (Winter 2008-2009) view

11/21/08: Statistical Forecasting Seminar using Autobox view

08/01/08: Cited in textbook "Budget Tools" by Greg Chen, Dall forsythe, Dan Williams, Lynne A. Weikart view

07/01/08 Autobox stands alone at the top of Automated Forecasting Software in the "Daily Data" 2008 Forecasting Competition view

On the heels of our 1st and 2nd place finish in the last Neural Network Competition in 2006 on "Monthly data", we are very proud of our latest accomplishment. All other forecasts were NOT from automatic systems like Autobox, but rather handcrafted for each series one by one. Can you imagine trying to routinely rebuild all of your models/forecasts daily non automatically? Do you think you could get the job done in time?

Robert Fildes(former President of the ISF) and Sven Crone presented the results at the June 26, 2008, 28th International Symposium on Forecasting in Nice, France and the International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM) in Las Vegas July 15, 2008. The competition was sponsored by the University of Lancaster and focused on daily data. The most interesting result was the performance of Autobox which stood alone as the only automatic software package to achieve great results. All known forecasting software vendors were solicited and notably absent was our competition. Only one other vendor elected to submit their forecasts into the competition after reviewing the data.

• 111 Complete Dataset - Autobox placed 17th
• 11 Reduced Dataset(toughest datasets) - Autobox placed 12th

Congratulations to Gao and Sollacher at Siemens for winning the competition. It should also be noted that the Siemens software package costs hundreds of thousands of dollars and you would need the expertise that Gao and Sollacher's have and the time/effort to get an optimal result. Results are posted on the website http://www.neural-forecasting-competition.com/results.htm and then will be published in a special edition dedicated to this competition in The International Journal of Forecasting.

07/01/08: Click here to see Autobox's graphs we submitted for the 2008 Neural Network Forecasting Competition view

06/25/08 Selected by Canadian National Defence Office over SAS® and Forecast Pro®

06/16/08: Our partner AdapChain Software has linked Autobox right into SAP® view

06/12/08: Autobox in Software Benchmarking for Accuracy view

06/10/08: Profiled in ORMS Today's 2008 Forecasting Software Survey with Autobox compared amongst 26 competitors. by Jack Yurkewicz of Pace University view

05/29/08: Launched Autobox 6.0  Download now!

05/12/08: Rolled OUT - FISERV launches Autobox in Financial Management Services Providing MILLIONS of forecasts being generated daily

03/15/08 Beta Version Launched named "AutoBJ" - Reads/Writes Excel/Text Files in Batch Environment

10/21/07: Used in the Forest Research and Management Institute of Bucharest with tree ring Time Series view

08/17/07: Autobox's automatic modeling stands at the top of Statistical Software in the"Monthly" Neural Network Forecasting Competition view

• 111 Complete Dataset - Autobox placed 2nd (tie)
• 11 Reduced Dataset(toughest datasets) - Autobox placed 1st (tie)

06/05/07: Published in the Journal of Business Forecasting (Summer), "How to select a Dedicated Forecasting Software" by David P. Reilly view

04/15/07: Used in the American Association of Wine Economists, "IDENTIFICATION OF STOCHASTIC
PROCESSES FOR AN ESTIMATED ICEWINE TEMPERATURE HEDGING VARIABLE" by Don Cyr and Martin Kusy view

01/01/07: Cited in the North American Actuarial Journal "The Lee-Carter Model for Forecasting Mortality, Revisited", on page 39
by Siu-Hang Li, Wai-Sum Chan view

10/27/06: White Paper on Cannibalization "Testing Market Hypothesis", by John C. Pickett, David P. Reilly view

05/23/06: Used in SWISS FOREIGN TRADE INDICES USERS’ GUIDE - Federal Customs Administration (FCA) Statistics Section view

05/23/06: Used in Technological Forecasting and Social Change "Analysis of the Supply and Demand in the TFT-LCD market" by Lin, Wang, Lo, Hsu, Wangview

06/09/05: Published in the Journal of Business Forecasting (Summer), "How to select a most efficient OLS model for time series data". by John C. Pickett, David P. Reilly, Robert M. McIntyre view

04/01/05: Used in the Canadian Journal of Forest Research "Dendroecological reconstructions of forest
disturbance history using time-series analysis with intervention detection" by Daniel Druckenbrod view

01/11/05: Published in the Journal of Business Forecasting (Winter 2004-2005), "Forecasting Consumer Product Demand with Weather Information: A Case Study" by Joel Sivillo and David Reilly view

01/09/05: Full history of Autobox on page 363 in Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, "A compendium of existing econometric software packages" by C.G. Renfro.   view

01/07/05: Weather Predict and AFS form alliance providing weather forecasts with industry-leading accuracy.

12/22/04: Published in the Journal of Business Forecasting (Winter), "Forecasting Consumer Product Demand With Weather Information: A Case Study", by Joel Sivillo and David P. Reilly view

08/01/04: Used Applied Economics August 2004, "Different approaches of modelling reaction lags: how do Chilean manufacturing exports react to movements of the real exchange rate?by Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, view

04/01/04: Used in Fraud Magazine, "Detecting Fraud in the Data Using Automatic Intervention Detection, Part Two", March/April 2004 view

02/01/04: Usedin Fraud Magazine, "Detecting Fraud in the Data Using Automatic Intervention Detection", January/February 2004 view

04/27/03: Carreker selects Autobox for use in their ATM cash management systems.

04/02/03: Used for the analysis by the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences "Toward an Understanding of Team Performance and Team Cohesion Over Time Through the Lens of Time Series Analysis" by Robert M McIntyre, Kari Strobel, Hope Hanner, Amy Cunningham, Lara Tedrowa. view

02/12/03: Market6 selects Autobox for use in their Demand Chain Inventory Management systems as part of the Anheuser-Busch Win

07/01/03: Used in White Paper "Modelação da Taxa de Juro do Crédito a Particulares em Portugal: Uma
Abordagem ARIMA com Análise de Intervenção e Detecção de Outliers" by Jorge Caiado. view

10/13/02: Freefore is released    Download now!

02/12/02: Autobox is ported to Linux.

06/11/01: Autobox is selected as the best dedicated forecasting package in the text “Principles of Forecasting” J. Scott Armstrong

03/03/01: John Pickett, David Reilly and Robert McIntyre’s White Paper titled "Necessary and Sufficient Conditions"

07/01/99: Availability of Autobox 5.0
This version offers the ability to run a tournament of options leading to potentially different models in order to determine an optimum. Our tests have found this approach outperforms Autobox 4.0 significantly.

An alternative and creative accompanying feature is the "combined forecast" option. It uses the same tournament approach, but differs in that the forecast are driven from all of the models tried. Each of the forecasts for all of the "tried" models are weighted inverse to the standard deviation of their forecasts. This approach lets those models that fit the data better (smaller standard deviation the more the weight) have a more significant effect in driving the forecast.

05/03/99: Availability of Autobox as a DLL
This allows integration of Autobox into any C/Visual Basic applications.

10/8/98: AFS forged a Partnership with i2 Technologies
We recently forged an partnership with i2 Technologies, Inc., a leading developer of supply chain optimization and decision support solutions. Through this agreement, i2 will be embedding the AUTOBOX forecasting algorithms into its Demand Planner solution for cases where customers require the use of a Box Jenkins approach. AUTOBOX is a state-of-the-art forecasting engine that uses Box-Jenkins modeling techniques enhanced by Intervention (Outlier Detection) schemes. These tools are both univariate and causal and can produce forecasts for large numbers of series with limited or no manual intervention.

06/17/98: Used in Paper International Forum on Tourism Statistics "A LEADING INDICATOR FOR THE FOREIGN TOURISM DEMAND IN PORTUGAL" by Luis Delfim Santos and Margarida Macedod

03/01/97: Used in Environmental and Resource Economics" Chernobyl Effects on Domestic and Inbound Tourism in Sweden -- A Time Series Analysis" by L. Hultkrantz and C. Olsson. view

12/16/96: Release of Autobox 4.0

12/02/96: What to Look For in a Forecasting Package published in the Fall Edition of the Journal of Business Forecasting

08/23/96: Autobox cited in Gartner Group Study on demand forecasting capabilities
On August 23 the Gartner Group released a study on forecasting systems for production planning and control. AFS was cited as one of a handful of companies with the forecasting technologies that will meet the needs of technically aggressive corporations in the 1990's.

01/01/95: Used in Paper "Climate change and Salmon Production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean" by Hare and Francis. view

09/01/94: Used in Candian Department of Defence "An Attrition Forecasting Model: Technical Summary of Data and Methodology" by B. Solomon. view (not searchable - see page 13)

01/01/94: Used in Paper "Decadal scale regime shifts in the large marine ecosystems of the Northeast pacific" by Hare and Francis. view

01/01/94: Used in Journal of Urban Studies "Determining the Impact of Economic Factors on Local Government Growth Policy: Using Time-series Analysis and Transfer Function Models" by Harry McGinnis. view

05/13/93: Used in U.S. Department of the Interior - Technical Report - Prediction of Water Use in Puerto Rico" by Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran. view

01/01/93: Used in Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism "Sex-Dependent Alteration in Cortisol Response to Endogenous Adrencorticotropin" by University of Virginia Health Center. view

01/01/92: Used in Journal of Applied Pharmacology "Neuroendocrine effects of isapirone on the hypothalmic-pituitary adrenal axis" by M Benecke, etc. view (not searchable - see page 2)

04/01/91: Used in U.S. Department of the Agriculture - Research Report - Evaluation of a Time Series Model Forecasts for the Minnesota-Wisconsin Milk Price" by Gary Keough. view

01/01/90: Cited in White Paper "Dynamics of Long-term Forecast Products Supply and Policy Implications" by John Pickett and Richard Kluender. view

07/01/88: Used in Journal of Forecasting 1988 "Nyse volume: An application of outlier analysis" by John Guerard. view

01/01/81: Used in Fishery Bulletin 1981 "Using Box-Jenkins Models to Forecast Fishery Dynamics: Identification, Estimation and Checking" by Roy Mendelssohn. view